The final poll for the mayoral election race finds Garcetti and Greuel in the lead with 27% and 25% of the vote respectively.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-poll-mayor-20130302-g,0,5632576.graphic
Conducted by the LA Times and USC, this poll shows what many all ready knew; this has all but become a two person race. But as we look ahead to the May election, it is important to notice what else this poll show us. No candidate had gained a real advantage and Los Angeles' citizens are not excited about this election.
'"Voters don't appear to have very strong feelings about anyone who's
running or anything they're talking about," said Schnur, director of the
Jesse M. Unruh School of Politics at USC.
The USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/L.A. Times Los Angeles City
Primary Poll found that both Garcetti and Greuel have had limited
success in building a base among the major constituencies they have
targeted. Their similar records and Democratic views have left them in
something of a middling stand-off.'
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-poll-mayor-20130303,0,6577652.story
The two certainly have similar resumes. Garcetti has served on city council since 2001, Greuel since 2002. Both are lifelong politicians, though Greuel worked as an executive at Dreamworks from 1997-2002. Both are fairly progresive Democrats. Greuel has focused on her corruption ans waste cuts, Garcetti has pointed to hard budget decisions he has made while serving as city council president.
In failing to distinguish themselves from one another they have been unable to cultivate strong bases, something that will make this runoff more challenging for each candidate. Garcetti has ties with the Latino community, and though he leads that demographic, he has failed to truly win its support. This is an area he needs to improve in if he hopes to follow in the footsteps of Mayor Villaraigosa who controlled the Latino demographic in his wins. If Greuel (or Perry if she somehow sneaks through) would be the first female mayor of Los Angeles. Surprisingly this had little affect in the USC/LA Times poll.When asked what affect it would have for a candidate to be the first female mayor of Lo Angeles, 71% said it would have no affect at all.
Other than being the most experienced, big name candidates Greuel and Garcetti have failed to get many people outside of their districts to fully support them. Since the very first polls nothing has changed, Garcetti has a slim edge, he and Greuel seem destined for the runoff. Throughout this campaign Greuel and Garcetti have conducted a fairly friendly campaign, rarely going at one another. Garcetti has been a marginal frontrunner for much of the race, but everything will reset once this elecction finally boils down to Greuel and Garcetti on March 6. There is going to be about fifty percent of the electorate up for grabs. Greuel and Garcetti must find ways to separate themselves or else remain in a boring yet unpredictable stalemate, limping toward the finish line in May.
You point out that neither candidate was able to really excite the voter base, and that was evident in the fact that only 18% of registered voters showed up to the polls for the mayoral election. Do you expect that number to increase for the run-off election? I find it hard to believe that voters are that apathetic about who the next mayor is. My theory is that many voters--following the election--were certain the election was destined for a run-off between Garcetti and Gruel. Thus, they did not feel that it was worth their time to cast a ballot since the "actual" election would take place in May.
ReplyDeleteI'm also curious to see if Gruel changes her stance slightly on certain issues to reel in more voters. Since she lost slightly to Garcetti in the primary, she might need to change her strategy a little bit. Each candidate has picked up some major endorsements in the last couple of weeks, but I'm not sure that's enough for Gruel to make up the difference.