Sunday, February 24, 2013

The Infinity Piece Puzzle: How Redistricting at Both the National and Local Levels have become a Decennial Nightmare


“The stakes are incredibly high, every congressman is keenly aware that redistricting looms.” –Tim Storey of the National Conference of State Legislatures
Redistricting decides just how much your vote counts, or does not count. It’s no wonder that politicians have redistricting dates marked on their calendars. The process decides the fate of their political career, their home district, and the future power of their party. Politicians have perfected redistricting to a science that allows them to keep control of an area for a decade. Every ten years, when the new census comes out, districts across the country (at both the local and national level) are redrawn. For the next year or two, redistricting will briefly be in the spotlight as committees and congressional bills decide whether your vote will count. Then the process returns to court cases, intellectual discourses, and the murky shadows of backroom politics; only to rear its head once again in another decade. Most people do not know how redistricting works or what affects it has upon their lives. Democrats and Republicans use redistricting as battle of tug of war that allows them to keep a stranglehold of their traditional power bases. This happens especially in large states across the country, especially in California and Texas, and for the purpose of this blog I will discuss the troubles redistricting practices of Los Angeles. The impetus for change must come from outside party lines. Redistricting can seem like an impossible problem, and perhaps a truly perfect district may never exist, but there is an elegant, albeit simple, mathematical solution that can remove the infighting and political elements of redistricting.
If redistricting creates so many problems why even go through the process? The history of redistricting is as long and complicated as the process itself; but redistricting has slowly became a more and more important issue due to the racial, population, and political party changes that our country has seen. First, one has to understand the difference between reapportionment and redistricting. Reapportionment determines how many congressmen, and thus also how many Electoral College votes a state will receive. Just like redistricting, this process also occurs once every ten years, and numbers are based on the U.S. Census. Reapportionment has nothing to do with party politics; there is no opportunity for gerrymandering, or any other form of manipulation to suit parties' desires. It is purely mathematical. Up until 1930 congress cycled back and forth between different mathematical models created by three famous early Americans politicians: Thomas Jefferson, Daniel Webster, and Alexander Hamilton. http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/REDIST/red-us/redist-US.htm#N_9_. After the 1930 reapportionment, congress came up with the model that has been in use for every census after 1940. This is called “the method of equal proportion.” http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/2/2a. You can read the lengthy law from this link, but the basic idea is a simple math equation. “The formula uses the State's population divided by the geometric mean of that State's current number of seats and the next seat (the square root of n(n-1)). This formula allocates the remainders among the States in a way that provides the smallest relative difference between any pair of States in the population of a district and in the number of people per representative” (Reapportionment and Redistricting in the USA). These are basically the only words that the constitution has to say on the subject of reapportionment. The system is based on simple math, removes politics from the equation, and has gone unchanged since 1930. It is a shame that redistricting is not such an easy process.
Redistricting occurs when the states take census data, and the results of reapportionment, to determine districts for congressional, as well as state and local elections. Unlike reapportionment the process is highly politically charged process. There is not mathematical formula involved, no absolute right or wrong way to go about dividing up the cities and counties. Instead, long and contentious arguments arise as the legislature members argue over how to divide the state toward each individual’s party or personal advantage. Gerrymandering occurs when a district is redrawn in such a way that one party has gained a clear advantage over another. Though gerrymandering is technically illegal, the federal government does very little to stop it, and so it has become a frowned upon practice that happens in almost every state and is committed frequently by both parties.
Redistricting is primarily left to the states, but there is still some federal guidance. The most useful verbiage from the constitution concerning redistricting is as follows: “each state’s quota must be elected from single-member districts of equal population.” This is states’ rights at its finest. Do whatever you want, as long as the districts end up at about the same population size. Each state has a vastly different system for redistricting. Since there is such little guidance from the constitution, most federal regulations and laws come from the courts.
Two distinct population shifts have occurred, leading to courts mandating redistricting reform. As populations moved from rural to urban, states struggled to keep up and citizens of cities began to see their vote value diminish below those of lower populated rural areas. This led to several court cases, the most important of which was Baker v. Carr. http://www.oyez.org/cases/1960-1969/1960/1960_6. The importance of Baker and subsequent cases was that it gave courts the authority to examine state redistricting plans, and to overturn them if necessary.
The second major shift occurred during the civil rights movement of the 1960s, as minority populations grew in size and power. The next step in redistricting regulation was the Voting Rights Act, a byproduct of Baker, and a law that would lead to even more Supreme Court redistricting cases. The VRA created the idea of “pre-clearance,” which gives the federal government the ability to examine certain state redistricting proposals, and act on them, before they become laws. As court cases about the VRA have arisen, the courts have created more guidelines about how redistricting should proceed.
Federal regulation for the redistricting process has come almost entirely from the courts, and this creates quite a few problems. Courts have no real ways to enforce their opinions and rulings. It can take years or even decades for a case to reach the supreme court; this creates a huge problem in redistricting when the law in question before the court can only last for eight to ten years until the next census. Finally, the two major demographic changes that the courts have allowed for are racial, and rural to urban population change. Prior to the above demographic shifts, there was also a change to the two party system, a third event that the courts have never accounted for. When Hamilton and Jefferson derived their mathematical reapportionment system, and founding fathers decided to leave the rest up to the states, they had no idea that we would end up with a bipartisan system. The Supreme Court is loathed to intermingle with political issues, and so while the Court faced race and population issues, it has had little to say about gerrymandering for purely political purposes.
The courts have had some impact upon redistricting regulations, but most decisions are still left up to the states. Each state has unique legislation to decide its districts, but there are two basic models. Districts are either redrawn by the legislature through bills that are crafted and approved by the state’s congress, or by a type of state redistricting committee. Thirty-seven states favor the legislation format, though it clearly lends itself more towards gerrymandering. Of the remaining thirteen states that have used redistricting reform to create committees, six states use political commissions, while seven use independent commissions. http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/national-overview-redistricting-who-draws-lines. The main difference between these two systems is that political commissions have less balanced committee members and are more likely to end up with gerrymandered districts. That said, each of the thirteen states have largely different sets of criteria for their commissions.
California is one of the seven states that use an independent commission, called the Citizens Redistricting Committee. Article 21 of the California State Constitution explains how the committee is set up and run. http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/downloads/meeting_handouts_012012/handouts_20120104_crc_caconst.pdf. “The commission shall consist of 14 members, as follows: five who are registered with the largest political party in California based on registration, five who are registered with the second largest political party in California, and four who are not registered with either of the two largest parties in California.” It takes nine concurring members to approve a vote. In theory this creates a purely unbiased committee. Of course in a more liberal state such as California there will still be some favoritism to the Democratic Party. Though no one has claimed that gerrymandering has occurred as a result of this committee, nonetheless there have still been complaints about the system and its results. In just this past fall election, Proposition 40 served as referendum that would have nullified the redistricting work of the CRS. However, it received little support, lost its backers and was defeated 72% to 28%. This was the same election in which California Democrats gained a super majority (basically giving them total control of the California legislative system) in over a decade. http://www.californiatargetbook.com/ctb/default/index.cfm. So while California may have one of the fairest systems in the country, the CRS has still led to redistricting controversy, and a state that has an extremely polarized, and often one-sided political landscape. The CRS may not deserve all the blame for California’s redistricting controversy, but committees are still an imperfect answer to the problem. That said, California system might be the closest in the entire country to a system void of political motivation.
When redistricting show up in the news, it is usually concerning a southern state seeking pre-clearance, a high profile court case concerning the VRA, or a state legislature mired in gridlock over a new redistricting plan. State and federal level efforts are highlighted, and the redistricting plans at the local level are largely ignored. However, local redistricting, especially in large cities, can be just as contentious and secretive of a process as what occurs in the legislature of any gerrymandering state. Here in Los Angeles, the city elections are less than a week away, and many of their outcomes have been heavily influenced or even predetirmined by the controversial redistricting that occurred in mid 2012.
Local politicians rarely register with a party, but LA politics are certainly not devoid of conflict, and the redistricting process can be brutal. This was especially true in 2012. Los Angeles does not have as impartial a system as the CRS, and instead has a borderline dysfunctional committee system. Los Angeles must create two forms of districts every ten years, City Council Districts (LACCRC), and Los Angeles Unified School Districts (LAUSD). I will be focusing on the LACCRC, which came into the spotlight for its continuous gridlock last summer.
Just like California, the LACCRC attempts to form an unbiased committee. Section 204 of the Los Angeles city charter explains the committee’s process and duties. Committee members are selected in a rather confusing manner:
There shall be a Redistricting Commission to advise the Council on drawing of Council district lines. The Commission members shall be appointed in the following manner: one by each Council member except that the Council President shall appoint two members, three by the Mayor, one by the City Attorney, and one by the Controller. No City officer or employee shall be eligible to serve on the Commission. The Redistricting Commission shall appoint a director and other personnel, consistent with budgetary approval, which positions shall be exempt from the civil service provisions of the Charter.
One of the major flaws with this system is that within local politics, a syndrome of cronyism can easily arise when powerful parties are connected. The mayor, council president, and city attorney can easily be friends, and can easily stack the committee.  Section 204 is really quite basic and leaves much to be desired.
            Last summer the LACCRC struggled to complete their task of submitting a final plan by July 1st. The city became bitterly divided, by race, class, politics, and a multitude of factors. “City Council President Herb Wesson told a group of Baptist ministers that the city was divided into factions, and that he was "able to protect the most important asset that we as black people have, and that's to make sure that a minimum of two of the council people will be black for the next 30 years" (LA Times). This comment and others like it have led to several pending legal cases against the final redistricting plan. In the end, the plan seemed to favor blacks and whites over Latinos. In “LA Observed” Bill Boyarsky commented that it was strange for a Latino Mayor to push in that direction, but left it at that, “writing it off as another example of the murkiness of Los Angeles Politics.” The LA Times took it a step further when discussing Wesson, “Perhaps Wesson and others were actually working to preserve black voting power, or to blunt Asian or Latino voting power. It appears at least as likely that they were using their redistricting power to punish enemies and reward friends and supporters.” The redistricting ended up not really being about a struggle between Democrats and Republicans or Latinos and Blacks, but rather an opportunity for the more influential city council members to shore up their districts. “Council President Herb Wesson and Councilman Jose Huizar are happy with their new districts. Wesson’s now includes Koreatown and mostly black Baldwin Hills and Leimert Park; Huizars’s now covers downtown Los Angeles” (http://www.dailynews.com/opinions/ci_20217500/editorial-l-city-council-redistricting-an-inside-job).
            Wesson was not the only city council member to have an unfortunate outburst.
“An explosion of verbal fireworks set off the Los Angeles City Council's 90 minute discussion and vote on new district boundaries today as Councilwoman Jan Perry told the council president she regretted speaking out about what she saw as a corrupted process because it ultimately led to the destruction of her district.”
Perry saw her own district get cut to ribbons; the same district that lost parts of downtown to Huizar’s. Perry ultimately decided to run for mayor, perhaps partially in an attempt to settle the score, but trails considerably.
            Here is the end result of months of squabbles and backroom deals, a map that looks a bit arbitrary to any Angelino; http://graphics.latimes.com/la-council-redistricting-v3/. It seems that the LACCRC is little more than an attempt to give the outward impression that Los Angeles’ redistricting process is not a petty, political, popularity contest between the mayor and the city council.
Redistricting at the federal, state, and national level is in desperate need of reform. There are not enough federal mandates and a national precedent must be set (even with the understanding that every state’s needs and populations are different). There have been several different attempts and theories for redistricting reform in recent years. Committees like the one in use in the state of California certainly seem to be a step in the right direction, but after what I have witnessed in Los Angeles this Summer I believe that no matter how impartial a committee is intended to be it can always be manipulated to serve a darker purpose. Instead, I favor a simple mathematical solution based upon an algorithm.
There are several different proponents for this type of solution. Here is one presented by the Center For Range Voting: http://rangevoting.org/GerryExamples.html. People fear the mixture of technology and voting, but this is not like a voting machine that could be rigged without anyone knowing. The method and equation is very simple, almost anyone could check the math. Race, religion, and political party preference have all been removed from the process creating fair normal looking districts for all fifty states. A team at George Washington University has also come up with a slightly more complex algorithm: http://redistrictingnow.wordpress.com/2010/04/16/the-k-means-algorithm/.
Pick any algorithm you like. Run them 1,000 times. Combine all the different models out there. It does not matter. What matters is getting political scientists and mathematicians to work together to get the politics out of redistricting forever. Sometimes the simplest solutions are the best options. We do not need 30 person committees to muddy the waters even more; we will see the results of such committees in one week after the Los Angeles election results come in. Meanwhile, drowned out by all the squabbling, simple math equations could provide the solution on how to permanently remove gerrymandering from the American political lexicon.

No comments:

Post a Comment